Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.

Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.

About the Author
Mark A. Burgman is the Adrienne Clarke Chair of Botany at the University of Melbourne and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Conservation Biology. He has published over 200 refereed articles and seven authored books in ecology, conservation and risk analysis, and has worked in Australia, the United States and Switzerland. In 2006 he was elected to the Australian Academy of Science and received the Society for Conservation Biology Distinguished Service Award. He won the Royal Society of Victoria Research Medal in 2013.

Reviews
'Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts ... is very clearly and logically structured ... this book is written in easy and enjoyable language and very much oriented toward practical needs.' Pierre L. Ibisch, Conservation Biology



Book Information
ISBN 9781107531024
Author Mark A. Burgman
Format Paperback
Page Count 214
Imprint Cambridge University Press
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Weight(grams) 350g
Dimensions(mm) 228mm * 152mm * 11mm