Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest-traditional higher education strongholds-expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.

Fascinating and ambitious. There will be a wide and eager audience for this book. -- Martin J. Finkelstein, Seton Hall University, coauthor of The Faculty Factor: Reassessing the American Academy in a Turbulent Era An ambitious, original book that provides a new and much-needed general framework for detailed, fact-based forecasting of the demand for higher education over the next 15-20 years. Grawe's scholarship is well beyond sound. -- Bradley G. Lewis, Union College

About the Author
Nathan D. Grawe is the Ada M. Harrison Distinguished Teaching Professor of the Social Sciences at Carleton College, where he served as associate dean from 2009 to 2012.

Reviews
Over the past two weeks I've read a book about the future of American higher ed, and want to recommend it very highly. It might be the most important book on the subject published this year.
-Bryan Alexander blog
This "birth dearth" has prompted Nathan Grawe, Professor of Economics at Carleton College, to analyze the dynamics of demographic shifts and consider how schools might prepare for a significant decrease in demand. Grawe meticulously presents his findings in his insightful and practical new book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.
-Degree or Not Degree
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, by Nathan Grawe, is both terrifying and worth reading if you work in, or care about, higher education. I actually gasped several times, which isn't my usual response to monographs about demographics.
-Inside Higher Ed
Grawe's book is timely, well-researched, and thought-provoking. Especially college or university presidents would be well-served to give it a thorough reading, and this reviewer certainly be sharing the book with his.
-Michael T. Catalano, Dakota Wesleyan University, Numeracy
The leading spokesperson of this emergent discourse of demographic crisis is the economist Nathan D. Grawe, whose book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education sent a shockwave through higher education's administrative class.
-Los Angeles Review of Books
The most influential academic book of the past few years.
-Joshua Kim, Inside Higher Education



Book Information
ISBN 9781421424132
Author Nathan D. Grawe
Format Hardback
Page Count 192
Imprint Johns Hopkins University Press
Publisher Johns Hopkins University Press
Weight(grams) 408g
Dimensions(mm) 229mm * 152mm * 18mm