Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Enables readers to improve risk assessments and how they use them, by grounding their practice on scientific principles.

About the Author
Terje Aven is Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway, and a Principal Researcher at the International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS).

Reviews
'... a timely topic, and a very interesting book ... It is very detailed and academically rigorous ...' Charles K. Davis, Reviews.com
'The book provides a scientific framework apt to evaluate the quality of risk assessments and in particular their flexibility to specifically required purposes ... The book gives useful tools for graduate students and researchers as well for professionals.' Zentralblatt MATH



Book Information
ISBN 9780521760577
Author Terje Aven
Format Hardback
Page Count 224
Imprint Cambridge University Press
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Weight(grams) 570g
Dimensions(mm) 255mm * 180mm * 15mm