Medical Risk Prediction Models: With Ties to Machine Learning is a hands-on book for clinicians, epidemiologists, and professional statisticians who need to make or evaluate a statistical prediction model based on data. The subject of the book is the patient's individualized probability of a medical event within a given time horizon. Gerds and Kattan describe the mathematical details of making and evaluating a statistical prediction model in a highly pedagogical manner while avoiding mathematical notation. Read this book when you are in doubt about whether a Cox regression model predicts better than a random survival forest.

Features:

• All you need to know to correctly make an online risk calculator from scratch
• Discrimination, calibration, and predictive performance with censored data and competing risks
• R-code and illustrative examples
• Interpretation of prediction performance via benchmarks
• Comparison and combination of rival modeling strategies via cross-validation

Thomas A. Gerds is a professor at the Biostatistics Unit at the University of Copenhagen and is affiliated with the Danish Heart Foundation. He is the author of several R-packages on CRAN and has taught statistics courses to non-statisticians for many years.

Michael W. Kattan is a highly cited author and Chair of the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences at Cleveland Clinic. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and has received two awards from the Society for Medical Decision Making: the Eugene L. Saenger Award for Distinguished Service, and the John M. Eisenberg Award for Practical Application of Medical Decision-Making Research.

About the Author

Thomas A. Gerds is professor at the biostatistics unit at the University of Copenhagen. He is affiliated with the Danish Heart Foundation. He is author of several R-packages on CRAN and has taught statistics courses to non-statisticians for many years.

Michael Kattan is a highly cited author and Chair of the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences at Cleveland Clinic. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and has received two awards from the Society for Medical Decision Making: the Eugene L. Saenger Award for Distinguished Service, and the John M. Eisenberg Award for Practical Application of Medical Decision Making Research.

Reviews

"Two of the top researchers in the field of clinical prediction models have produced a highly innovative book that brings a very technical topic to public grasp by throwing out the formulas and just talking straight from the heart of practical experience. While clinicians and medical residents can now learn how to build, diagnose and validate risk models themselves, all public health researchers, old and new, will reap the benefits and enjoyment from reading this book."
~Donna Ankerst, Technical University of Munich

"Two of the top researchers in the field of clinical prediction models have produced a highly innovative book that brings a very technical topic to public grasp by throwing out the formulas and just talking straight from the heart of practical experience. While clinicians and medical residents can now learn how to build, diagnose and validate risk models themselves, all public health researchers, old and new, will reap the benefits and enjoyment from reading this book."
~Donna Ankerst, Technical University of Munich

"Overall, the book offers a well-written, complete and illustrative overview of clinical prediction models with clear stances and directions on the modelling methods, choices and strategies. I find this a very welcome and much needed addition to the literature because prediction is the backbone of medical decision-making; few books are dedicated to modelling strategies and artificial intelligence is ascending in medical research. I thereby highly recommend this book for anyone who would be interested in performing predictive modelling for prognostic or diagnostic research."

-Evangelos I. Kritsotakis, International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, 72, 2021

Book Information
ISBN 9780367673734
Author Thomas A. Gerds
Format Paperback
Page Count 312
Imprint Chapman & Hall/CRC
Publisher Taylor & Francis Ltd
Weight(grams) 439g